Introduction
Election Exit polls are used all over the world to predict the probable outcome of elections. An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations, hence the name Exit poll. When voters exit from election polling booths as their memory is fresh, they are most likely to share the truth. An exit poll asks voters which political party they are supporting after they have cast their votes in an election. These polls can be conducted face to face or online.
It is important to note that election exit polls are not conducted by any government agency. Pollsters from private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters usually conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count.
Important parameters for a good/accurate exit poll depend on; 1. Large and diverse sample size and 2. A clearly constructed questionnaire with no bias.
History of Exit poll in India
In 1957, during the 2nd Lok Sabha elections, the Indian Institute of Public Opinion conducted such a poll. Further, exit polls were developed by the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in the 1960s.
Election surveys and exit polls began gaining traction in India in the mid-1980s. The first serious media poll surveys started surfacing, with journalist and psychologist (a qualitative analyst of election and balloting) Prannoy Roy of India Today.
Satellite television gave exit polls a great importance, subsequently the state-run Doordarshan’s commissioning of a nationwide exit poll in 1996 to CSDS.
Significance of Exit Poll in Elections
Exit polls are seen as an important tool for predicting the outcome of an election and have become a crucial part of the media coverage of elections. Exit polls can also impact the opinions of those who are still to vote since they are post-election polls, but in comparison to other poll methods such as opinion polls, the switch in opinions is not as drastic in exit polls.
Exit polls have consistently been reliable sources to gather demographic information of voters. Since voting is anonymous, it becomes perilous for electoral candidates to know who participated in the voting process and exit polls are the sole source to gather demographic details and other information such as reasons why the voter voted for a particular candidate.
Exit polls express the mood of the people on the ground but their accuracy depends on various factors such as sample size, geographical coverage and the openness of voters. Typically, when people vote in clusters, it’s easy to measure the probable direction of the election result. However, sometimes a certain section of people chose not to show their leanings and that’s where the pollsters get the numbers wrong.
Accurate exit polls give an indication of:
· Who may secure the maximum votes
· The issues, personalities and loyalties that have influenced voters.
How does Exit Poll work?
Since actual votes are cast anonymously, polling is the only way of collecting this information. Exit polls are primarily used to collect demographic data of voters and to find out who they vote for.
Exit polls are generally conducted by pollsters from private organizations who work in association with newspapers or other broadcasters. While evaluating the polls, researchers also take into consideration factors such as absent voters or voters who cast their vote at a different voting booth etc. to gain accurate exit polls results.
The first step in exit polls is a sample creation. A sample demonstrative of the definite population should be formed and it should be further divided into smaller groups according to age, sex, and other demographic details. There is always a scope of a considerably large margin of error on the basis of sample formation which needs to be reduced as much as possible by the researcher.
The conventional exit poll method involves selection of constituent assembly, training of surveyors, surveyors stationed at polling booths, manually collecting data using pen and paper, and also digitally, through interviews with voters leaving the premises. While this process presented valuable insights, it still had its limitations in sample size and speed are apparent.
Due to sample biases in the constituency selection, manual data collection and entry, the traditional exit poll process usually is slow. Also, due to inherent inhibition, unwillingness to share their voting preferences publicly, the inclusivity of the older method is less inclusive as well as less accurate.
In this situation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital media optimization and social media optimization has become a game-changer. Digital media, especially social media, has revolutionized the game of exit polls. Many politicians’ teams and consultancies use social media optimization to track the sentiments of voters. Adopting such digital tools have significantly transformed and can also enhance the accuracy of exit polls.
Digital media tools offer real-time data collection through innovative methods. It can be used across the whole progression of conducting exit polls; starting from sampling, surveying and data collection, to analysis and prediction, leading to great efficiency, and accurate results. Sampling via neural networks ensures truthful illustration of multifaceted social hierarchy, adapting samples to evolving patterns and in so doing keeping it appropriate. This also ensures a diverse and representative sample.
Exit polls: Media Companies and organizations in India.
India being the largest democracy in the world has many agencies publishing exit polls which roughly predict the outcome of the elections.
Several news channels and independent survey companies conduct exit polls to give an indication which political party is likely to come in electoral power. Even though on multiple instances exit polls have been proven wrong, they still have gained popularity in India over the last few decades.
In India, the exit polls are conducted by private news broadcasting channels and newspaper agencies; Election Exit polls are conducted by a number of organizations, often in tie-ups with media organizations; such as:
Doordarshan, Lokniti-CSDS, CNN-IBN (News 18), India Today: Axis My India, News24: Today’s Chanakya, Outlook/AC Nielsen, DRS, Frontline/CMS, India Today/CSDS, Indian Express, Star C-Voter, Headlines today, Times Now–ORG, ABP News–Nielsen, NDTV–Hansa Research, Dainik Bhaskar, Aajtak ORG-MARG, Star News C-Voter, TV 9-BharatVarsh, and Zee.
Exit poll regulations in India
The use of exit polls is regulated in India to prevent dissemination of false or misleading information that can influence the outcome of the election.
The Election Commission is accountable for regulating the use of exit polls. According to the Election Commission India (ECI), exit polls can only be conducted during a specific period. This period starts from the time when the polling booths close and ends 30 minutes after the last booth has closed. Exit polls cannot be conducted during the voting period or on polling day.
The ECI also stipulates that exit polls cannot be broadcasted or published before the voting period has ended in all parts of India. This is to ensure that the exit polls do not influence the voting behavior of voters who have not yet cast their vote. The ban on the publication of exit polls remains in place until the last phase of voting is completed.
In addition to the ban on the publication of exit polls, the ECI also requires that all media outlets that conduct exit polls must register with the commission. This is to ensure that the exit polls are conducted in a fair and unbiased manner. The media outlets must also observe a code of conduct that forbids them from publishing any information that could influence the outcome of the election.
Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 states unequivocally, “Section 126A of the R.P. Act 1951, prohibits conduct of Exit poll and dissemination of their results by means of print or electronic media during the period mentioned therein, i.e. between the hour fixed for commencement of poll in the first phase and half an hour after the time fixed for close of poll for the last phase in all the States.”
Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951 also states that “no person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicize by means of the print or electronic media… the result of any exit poll during such a period… In case of a general election, the period may commence from the beginning of the hours fixed for the poll on the first day of poll and continue till half an hour after closing of the poll in all the states and union territories.”
Any person who violates the provisions of this section shall be punished with imprisonment for a term up to 2 years or a fine or both.
In 1998, the Election Commission of India (ECI) issued guidelines under Article 324 of the Constitution, restricting media from publishing results of opinion and exit polls during a prohibited period. In 1999, the SC stated that in the absence of a statutory sanction, the Election Commission of India (ECI) cannot impose any guidelines prohibiting such polls. The inclusion of Section 126(A) in the Representation of the People Act, 1951, in 2010 imposed restrictions only on exit polls.
At present, exit polls can be broadcasted only after the conclusion of the last phase of the election.
Exit polls are also used to command a mandate and to determine whether or not a particular political campaign was successful or not.
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